North Texas vs Troy 11/12/2011

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Troy is a solid favorite with a 60% chance to beat North Texas. Shawn Southward is projected for 68 rushing yards and a 48% chance of having at least 1 rushing TD. In the 40% of simulations where North Texas wins, Derek Thompson averages 1.74 TD passes vs 0.53 interceptions, while in losses he has a ratio of 0.94 TDs to 0.68 interceptions. Lance Dunbar averages 147 rushing yards and 1.51 rushing TDs when North Texas wins and 128 yards and 0.83 TDs in losses. Troy has a 29% chance of forcing more turnovers than they commit. Positive turnover margin helps them win 74% of the time.

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